Bend's Market Is Splitting at the Price Point
If you're watching Bend's real estate market right now, the headline from September is this: where you're shopping determines everything. The market isn't uniformly slow or fast — it's split cleanly by price, and knowing which side of that line you're on changes your entire strategy.
What's Flying Off the Shelves
Homes priced in the $300,000 range — yes, single-family stick-built homes in Bend — are back. That hasn't been the case since well before COVID, and buyers are responding accordingly. Two homes in that range went pending in a single day within a two-week stretch. The $400,000 range is moving nearly as fast, drawing first-time buyers and investors looking for a flip with enough margin to make the numbers work.
If you're shopping in the three- or four-hundred-thousand-dollar range right now, you need to act with 2022-level urgency. That window is real and it is narrow.
What's Sitting
Once you cross into the $500,000-and-above range, the picture changes. Buyers who do step forward are negotiating hard. We're seeing seller credits of $30,000 to $40,000 toward rate buy-downs and closing costs, and price reductions of $150,000 to $200,000 on some deals. Sellers who need to sell are motivated. Sellers who don't are pulling their homes off the market and calling property managers — which means a glut of single-family rentals is likely coming to the Bend market soon.
September by the Numbers
- Median sale price in Bend: $728,000 — up about 1% from August, down about 3% from last year
- Homes sold: 155 — down 3% from August and down nearly 14% from last September
- Days on market: 38 days — four days longer than August, but seven days shorter than this time last year
- Price per square foot: $358 — essentially unchanged
- Cash buyers: approximately 34% of transactions — also unchanged
One important caveat on days on market: that 38-day figure only counts homes that actually found a buyer. It says nothing about the homes still sitting unsold. The quick sales at the affordable end coexist with properties that have been waiting for any offer at all.
The National Context
Redfin recently reported that there are 63% more sellers than buyers nationwide — meaning roughly 16 sellers for every 10 buyers. That's the widest gap in Redfin's records going back to 2013, before COVID, during the market correction. Forty-one of the 50 major metro areas currently favor buyers. Higher interest rates and economic uncertainty are keeping many buyers on the sidelines nationally, but those who can buy have more options and less competition than they've had in years.
Bend reflects some of that national imbalance, but not quite as starkly. The affordable end of our market is still competitive. Context matters.
What the Numbers Actually Mean
Sales have slowed more than prices have. Nearly 14% fewer homes sold compared to last September, while price per square foot is holding. That tells you buyers and sellers are having trouble finding agreement — some sellers are making concessions to close, others are holding out or exiting the market entirely.
It's also worth noting that seller credits toward closing costs or rate buy-downs don't show up in the recorded sale price. What looks like a steady median can actually represent meaningful savings for buyers that never make it into the headline number. Your realtor can see those concessions on the back end. The general public cannot.
And for sellers who bought about two years ago expecting significant appreciation: September's median is only about 2% above where it was two years ago, while days on market is nearly two weeks longer. If you were counting on big gains, the math may require a check at closing rather than a windfall.
Our Take for Buyers and Sellers
This is a market that rewards knowing when to move fast and when to push hard. At the lower price points, strong terms and a quick offer matter. Above $500,000, there's real room to negotiate — but you need a skilled agent who can read the seller's situation and structure the deal accordingly.
For sellers, pricing realistically from day one saves you months of carrying costs, repeated reductions, and the trap of pulling your home to rent it — only to find yourself locked into a lease and trying to sell next October, which is historically one of the slower windows of the year.
Swift action paired with patience and good negotiation skills wins this market. Know when competition demands a strong offer — and know when you have room to push.
Connect With COIN and Keep Learning
Whether you're a buyer hunting for that sub-$400K deal before it disappears, a seller ready to price it right and move on, or an investor running renovation numbers on a potential flip, Suzanne and Sarah are here to run the stats with you and give you a realistic picture.
If you want to go deeper on building passive income through real estate, check out the PRIMO Private Money Academy — built for investors who want to understand how to fund and structure deals. And join us at the monthly Central Oregon Investor Network meetup, where investors from Bend and across the country share resources and strategies in real time. Links to book a call and find upcoming events are in the show notes.
