A Scary Headline That Needs Some Context
Home sales dropped to their lowest level in nearly two years. That kind of headline travels fast. But when you read past the first sentence, the national decline is roughly two and a half percent—real, but not the cliff-edge the coverage implies. Sarah Willis and Suzanne Moore of Central Oregon Investor Network sat down on their Real Deal podcast to work through what the numbers actually mean, and more importantly, what they're seeing on the ground in Bend right now.
Where the Declines Are Actually Happening
The steepest drops are concentrated in specific markets. According to the article Sarah and Suzanne reviewed, the fastest-falling cities include:
- San Antonio, down nearly 13% year-over-year
- Dallas and Fort Worth, each down around 10%
- Detroit and Seattle, each down roughly 9%
Texas is a particular case. Builders there put up so much new inventory that existing homes are now competing directly with brand-new construction loaded with builder incentives. Pending sales are falling fastest in Seattle, down about 15.5% year-over-year, followed by Houston and Phoenix—two markets that surged during the pandemic years.
Tech layoffs at companies like Microsoft and Amazon are a meaningful driver in Seattle. As Suzanne noted, those jobs are being replaced in many cases by AI, and that's pulling demand out of the market there.
What Bend Looks Like Right Now
Central Oregon is not Seattle or San Antonio. Bend's median home price sits close to Seattle's, but the buyer profile is fundamentally different. People aren't coming to Bend because they work at a local tech campus. They're coming because they've made their money elsewhere and are choosing to put it here—a lifestyle market, not a job-market-dependent one.
That distinction matters when you're reading national crash predictions.
The honest picture from Sarah and Suzanne: July was flat. Days on market are running about a week longer than they were. Prices are essentially flat year-over-year, down only around 2%. Phones were quieter than usual for peak summer season. By their own description, it was a "total snoozefest."
But flat is not falling. And the buyers who are active right now are in a strong position.
The Negotiating Window Buyers Have Right Now
Sellers who are ready to move are moving. Sarah described a recent transaction on a home listed at $1.1 million where their buyer's strategy—combining purchase price and credits—got them close to the $1 million mark with no counter offer. That's the kind of outcome that rarely happens in a hot market.
"I like to tell buyers that I like to be wrong. Buyers will come to me and say they want to offer a certain price or ask for certain credits and I'll say I'm happy to do that, but anticipate a counter offer. And one of the last homes we got under contract, we got a net $100,000 under asking—with no counter."
— Sarah Willis
Sellers are reading the same headlines you are. Some of them are deciding that a smaller number today beats waiting months for a better one that may not come.
The Other Side: Cash Buyers and Pent-Up Demand
The market isn't one-dimensional. While concessions are available on many properties, the right house still draws a crowd. Sarah and Suzanne described one listing in July that received twelve offers, with multiple bids over asking price in cash.
That's not a contradiction—it's the market sorting itself. Central Oregon carries roughly 35 to 40 percent cash sales across all single-family transactions, which is significantly higher than most comparable markets. A meaningful share of buyers here simply aren't affected by mortgage rates. When the walkable, turnkey, well-located property hits the market, those buyers move fast.
The buyers sitting on the sidelines waiting for perfect aren't gone. They're just waiting.
A Note on the Bay Area and What It Could Mean
Suzanne flagged one area where she does see signs of overheating: San Francisco, where the AI and IPO boom is driving offers hundreds of thousands—sometimes millions—over asking on multi-million dollar homes. She's careful to say that's localized, but also that the Bay Area has historically had ripple effects on broader markets, including Central Oregon, which draws a steady stream of buyers and investors from that region.
What to Watch Going Forward
Before any broader market correction, the Federal Reserve would likely lower interest rates to stimulate buying and shore up the economy. Recent job numbers have been softer, and as Suzanne's lender contact put it, good news for rates usually means the economy is cooling. That's worth watching, but it's not a crash signal on its own.
Seasonally, expect the current slowdown to continue through winter before activity picks back up around February. That's a normal cycle, not a collapse.
Come Talk Strategy With Us
If you want to stay current on what's actually happening in the Bend and Central Oregon market—and learn how to position yourself as a buyer or investor in this environment—join us at our monthly investor meetup. We gather online and sometimes in person on the third Thursday of each month, noon to 1 p.m. Pacific time.
And if you're ready to go deeper on building a private money strategy to fund your deals, check out the PRIMO Private Money Academy. It's built for Central Oregon investors who want to move when the right opportunity shows up—without waiting on a bank.
